Production capacity was restored, and pig prices fell. On April 20, the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas held a regular press conference to answer questions about China’s agricultural production. At present, the average wholesale price of pork market in China has declined for 12 consecutive weeks. The industry points out that the domestic pig supply will be more relaxed in the later period. However, for the supply side, the consumption positive signal of the decline of pig price also means the continuous compression of profit space. Song Danyang, deputy director of the Department of market and information technology of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, responded to the rising breeding costs caused by the higher corn prices. He pointed out that the market supply was sufficient before the new season corn harvest was launched, and the price rise lacked support. At present, the authoritative information release system of the whole hog industry chain is about to be brewed out to guide expectations and stabilize market fluctuations.
Guidance expectation of the whole industry chain
According to song Danyang, the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas is working with the national development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Commerce, the General Administration of customs and the National Bureau of statistics to establish an authoritative information release system for the whole hog industry chain. Through a unified and authoritative release window, the information of the whole hog industry chain is released to guide producers to adjust production capacity reasonably, effectively guide expectations, and stabilize market price fluctuations.
According to the current trend of pig prices, it is time to establish the authoritative information release mechanism of the whole industry chain. According to the monitoring, after 12 consecutive weeks of backwardness, in the third week of April, the price of pork in the national market was 38.96 yuan / kg, a year-on-year decrease of 27.6%. The price is 15.26 yuan lower than the highest price in the third week of January, and 20.68 yuan lower than the highest price last year.
“After the Spring Festival, the demand for pork is in the off-season of consumption, and the price of live pigs and pork has also declined significantly. Combined with the impact of African swine fever, frozen products and other factors, the price of live pigs and pork has declined sharply in this round.” Qian Tao, an analyst at sozhu.com, pointed out.
“In general, the most tense period of pork supply has passed, and the later supply will be more and more relaxed.” According to Chen Guanghua, deputy director of the Bureau of animal husbandry and veterinary medicine, according to the current production recovery momentum, pig stocks are expected to return to the normal level in June and July this year. In another four months or so, the average monthly output of pigs will gradually return to the normal level. “According to the perennial trend of pig prices, there may be a wave of rise in pig prices around the Dragon Boat Festival. However, based on the calculation of the number of newborn piglets in the early stage, it is estimated that in the second quarter, the year-on-year growth rate of the number of fattening pigs in the national scale pig farms will reach 50%, the market supply is generally abundant, and the price is unlikely to exceed the high point in the early stage. “
However, the sharp drop in pig prices will indeed have different degrees of impact on the breeding end. “The main reason for the recent sharp drop in pig prices is the obvious increase in live pig sales, coupled with the decline in pork consumption after the Spring Festival. In addition, there are also farmers’ panic sales, forming a” stampede effect. ” Chen Guanghua analysis that. One farmer said, “the price of pigs is green now. It’s a bit difficult to raise it to 16 yuan per catty. Pigs grow bigger and bigger every day. I’m afraid that they will grow too fast. I dare not feed them too much. Many of my peers advise me to sell them if I can.
Pig price down and feed up
Although the downward trend of pork price means that the consumption cost of meat food will gradually return to normal, it can not be ignored that the continuously rising feed price also makes it difficult for the supply side to ride the tiger.
“The rising price of corn will inevitably raise the cost of feed breeding downstream.” Song Danyang pointed out, “we are working with the relevant departments to ensure the supply of feed grain by increasing the input of rice and wheat stored in excess of time, appropriately expanding the import of corn and its substitutes, guiding and regulating the demand and other measures while doing a good job in grain production.”
Generally speaking, corn is used as an important feed material by farmers, and its price fluctuation is directly related to the breeding cost. According to the monitoring, the operation of corn market in the first quarter of this year can be divided into two stages: before the Spring Festival, affected by the strong demand and tight grain supply, the price continued to strengthen; after the Spring Festival, with the increase of temperature and the acceleration of grain sales by farmers and traders, the market supply was loose at this stage, and the price stabilized and fell.
“After the Spring Festival consumption, breeding enterprises have a demand for feed. With the warmer weather, African swine fever shows signs of abatement. In March, pig and sow stocks stopped falling and rebounded month on month, which jointly boosted feed demand and further affected corn consumption.” Souzhu news analysis pointed out that pig production capacity continues to recover, feed demand will continue to grow steadily.
At present, in the northeast of the corn producing area, the purchase price of corn is maintained at 1.35-1.4 yuan per catty, while in North China, it is basically maintained at 1.45-1.5 yuan per catty. Song Danyang pointed out that although the price increased more than last year, it only increased slightly compared with 2014, the highest price in history. In general, driven by the growth of corn demand and the rising cost in recent years, for the sake of recovery, the net profit of corn planting which has been losing for years may be increased, which will promote the enthusiasm of farmers to grow grain this year, and the corn planting area is expected to recover significantly.
In order to further alleviate the situation of domestic supply shortage, China’s grain imports continued to increase this year. On April 13, according to the data released by China Customs, China’s imports of soybeans, corn, wheat and other cereals increased significantly in the first quarter. Among them, 6.727 million tons of corn were imported, a year-on-year increase of more than five times; 2.925 million tons of wheat were imported, a year-on-year increase of more than double; 21.18 million tons of soybean were imported, a year-on-year increase of 19% over 17.79 million tons.
“From the later trend, considering the surplus grain in the hands of farmers and traders, the inventory of processing enterprises and import and other factors, the market supply of corn harvest in the new season is sufficient before it goes on the market, and the price continues to rise is lack of support. The market supply of autumn grain is expected to be further improved after it comes into the market, and the pattern of ensuring the basic self-sufficiency of grain based on stability will not change. ” Song Danyang said.
Priority food security
The stable operation of pork price is closely related to grain production. The significance of authoritative information release system of the whole hog industry chain is also here. How to guarantee grain production including corn has become a necessary question.
“We will persist in taking grain production as the primary task of agricultural and rural work, strive to win the first battle of summer grain, ensure that the area of spring sown grain only increases, ensure that the annual grain area is stable at more than 1.75 billion mu, increase the corn area by more than 10 million mu, and ensure that the annual grain output remains at more than 1.3 trillion Jin.” Song Danyang said.
However, it should be noted that this year’s meteorological year is still not optimistic, bringing pressure on grain production activities. Among them, drought and flood, extreme cold, extreme heat and other extreme weather may occur frequently, and major diseases and pests will also occur again. It is understood that at present, the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas has formulated a disaster prevention and mitigation plan, organized and carried out the action of “insect population seizing grain to ensure a bumper harvest”, and densely laid the “four belt” defense line of grassland noctuid moth, striving to reduce the losses of Meteorological disasters and diseases and insect pests, and ensure the realization of disaster resistance and bumper harvest.
The hidden danger of insect disaster has attracted the attention of the policy side. On March 30, the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas held a national video conference on the prevention and control of major crop diseases and pests. The meeting pointed out that the risk of wheat stripe rust and scab in China is expected to be high this year, and the pest of Lepidoptera litura and rice “two migrations” will show a heavy trend, which is more serious than that of last year. It is necessary to curb the outbreak of major diseases and insect pests, ensure that Lepidoptera litura will not cause large-scale northward migration harm, ensure that epidemic and fulminant diseases and insect pests will not cause large-scale yield reduction, and ensure that foreign locusts will not cause invasion The control and disposal rate of major diseases and insect pests reached more than 90%, and the overall damage loss was controlled within 5%.
Up to now, Hubei, Shaanxi, Henan, Sichuan and other provinces have implemented the control of wheat stripe rust for over 2.77 million mu times, while Yunnan, Guangdong, Guangxi and other provinces have implemented the control of grassland armyworm for over 2.21 million mu times.
Beijing Business Daily reporter Tao Feng Liu Hanlin
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