On March 11, Beijing Municipal Bureau of statistics released data showing that in February this year, Beijing’s CPI fell 0.1% year-on-year and rose 0.4% month on month. Food prices rose by 1.5%, which was still the main factor driving CPI that month. But different from the past, the price of pork has become the restricting force of CPI upward.
The data showed that in February, the price of food, tobacco and alcohol rose by 1% on a month on month basis, affecting the overall index to rise by about 0.25 percentage points. The price of livestock and meat decreased by 1.2%, and the total impact index decreased by about 0.04 percentage point. Among them, the price of pork decreased by 3.6%, and the total impact index decreased by about 0.04 percentage point.
Feng Yonghui, chief analyst of souzhu.com, said, “before the Spring Festival this year, after the pig price reached a phased high, it began to fall in a month before the Spring Festival. During this period, the mentality of many farmers changed. We think that it’s abnormal for the price to fall in the peak consumption season. There is a psychological panic. Some farmers follow suit and sell off, and many pigs that have not reached the slaughter weight are sold off ahead of time. “.
At the same time, the reduction of market demand also exacerbated the downward trend of pork prices. According to the monitoring data of the information center of Beijing Municipal Bureau of agriculture, in February this year, the price of pork in the wholesale market of the whole city was 36.83 yuan / kg, with a month on month decrease of 16% and a year-on-year decrease of 21.8%. In the last week of February, the price of white streaked pork in the city was 31.96 yuan / kg, which was more than 19% lower than 39.51 yuan / kg in the first week of February.
The relevant person in charge of the information center of Beijing Municipal Bureau of agriculture pointed out that from the perspective of pork price trend in February, pork prices were relatively stable driven by consumer demand during the Spring Festival. After the Spring Festival, the demand for pork consumption decreased seasonally, and the price began to decline rapidly, which has a lot to do with the recovery of pig production capacity and market expectations. It is expected that the downward trend of pork price will become normalization for a long time in the future. In the medium and long term, August is the inflection point of pork prices. Stimulated by policies, pig production capacity is basically close to the normal level, and pig supply has gradually shifted from tight supply to balanced and loose supply. From the perspective of policy regulation, we should focus on the speed of pig production capacity release and price changes in the later stage.
Different from the price of meat, the price of fresh fruits, aquatic products and fresh vegetables increased by 6.6%, 3.9% and 3.3% respectively in the same month, driving CPI up by about 0.14%, 0.04% and 0.07% respectively.
According to statistics, in February this year, the average price of vegetables in Beijing wholesale market was 4.12 yuan per kilogram, a month on month decrease of 5.7% and a year-on-year increase of 16.1%, which was the second highest in the same period of history. The market volume of vegetables was 544200 tons, and the average daily market volume was 19400 tons, with a slight decrease of 0.5% on the ring ratio and a slight increase of 0.5% on the year-on-year basis.
“During the Spring Festival this year, the main wholesale markets in Beijing are operating normally, and the prices of vegetables are relatively stable; during the same period, the structural imbalance of the vegetable market is more prominent, and the price of single vegetable variety fluctuates violently. After the Spring Festival, the city’s vegetable prices have been declining rapidly. In the absence of extreme weather and other circumstances, the city’s vegetable prices will go down month on month in March. In the later period, the range and speed of the decline of vegetable prices are likely to accelerate. The month on month drop in prices may be more than 20%, and the year-on-year prices may be the same as last year or lower than last year’s level. ” The person in charge said.
It is worth mentioning that the prevention and control of the epidemic is becoming normalized, and the city’s offline consumption is recovering. From the data side, the prices of the other seven categories rose, fell and remained flat on a month on month basis. Among them, the prices of education, culture, entertainment and housing increased by 2.1% and 0.2% respectively; the prices of other goods and services, daily necessities and services, clothing, transportation and communication decreased by 1.1%, 0.5%, 0.4% and 0.3% respectively; the prices of medical care and health care remained the same as last month.
The relevant person in charge of the Beijing investigation team of the National Bureau of statistics pointed out that this was due to the increase in cultural and entertainment demand of residents during the Spring Festival, and the price of movie and performance tickets and travel agency charges increased by 25.4% and 8.4% respectively; affected by the price adjustment of refined oil, the price of gasoline and diesel increased by 3.5% and 3.8% respectively.
During this year’s Spring Festival, influenced by the policy of “spending Chinese New Year in Beijing”, the city’s cultural and entertainment consumption picked up rapidly. According to statistics, the box office revenue of Beijing’s “Spring Festival stalls” has increased by nearly 30% compared with that in 2019; according to UnionPay data, the consumption amount of cultural entertainment during the festival has increased by 2.3% year on year, returning to 78% of that in 2019. The number of tourist ticket sales increased by 27.5% on a year-on-year basis, 34% higher than that in 2019.
Beijing Business Daily reporter Tao Feng Liu Hanlin
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