Pork prices fell for seven weeks in a row, and the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas expects that there is still room for decline

On March 18, according to the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, pork prices across the country have dropped for seven consecutive weeks. The number of fertile sows in China has reached 95% in 2017. The relevant person in charge of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas said that it is the off-season of pork consumption, and it is expected that the market price of pork will continue to decline.

According to the monitoring data of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, in the second week of March, the price of pork in the national market was 46.26 yuan per kilogram, a year-on-year decrease of 20.9%, 7.96 yuan lower than the highest price in January and 13.38 yuan lower than the highest price last year. During this period, pork prices in 29 provinces including Guangdong, Ningxia, Anhui, Fujian and Xinjiang all declined to varying degrees. As of 14:00 on March 17, the average price of pork in the national wholesale market of agricultural products was 37.56 yuan / kg, down more than 18% from 46.02 yuan / kg on February 1.

The decline in pork prices is largely due to the continuous repair of domestic pig production capacity. The relevant person in charge of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas pointed out that since the beginning of this year, the national breeding sow stock has continued to grow, the basic production capacity has continued to recover, the pig market has increased significantly, and the pork market price has dropped significantly. According to the monitoring, in January and February, the number of fertile sows in China increased by 1.1% and 1% month on month, 35% and 34.1% year on year, respectively. By the end of February, the number of fertile sows in China was 95% of that at the end of 2017, and the number of live pigs in China remained above 400 million. In February, 14.24 million pigs were slaughtered by designated pig slaughtering enterprises above designated scale, up 71.2% year on year.

The person in charge said that considering the recovery of pig production in the early stage, the number of newborn piglets, pig feed sales and other factors, it is estimated that the number of live pigs sold in the first half of this year will increase by about 65% year on year, and continue to maintain a significant increase trend.

At a press conference held at the end of February this year, Tang Renjian, director of the central agricultural office and Minister of agriculture and rural affairs, said that the most tense period of pig supply has passed, and it is expected that the supply will gradually ease in the later period. It is expected to return to the level at the end of 2017 by the end of the second quarter of this year.

Recently, the national consumer price disclosed by the National Bureau of statistics also shows that in February this year, the national pork price has become a constraint on the rise of CPI. Different from fruits and vegetables, the price of livestock and meat decreased by 1%, which affected CPI by about 0.04%. Among them, the price of pork decreased by 3.1%, which affected the CPI by about 0.07 percentage point. This situation is not normal since the outbreak of African swine plague in 2018.

In February this year, the Central Committee and the State Council issued the “No. 1 central document” in 2021, and put forward “long-term protection mechanism for pig production and a sound long-term mechanism for pig industry development.” The above-mentioned person in charge said that he would follow up and urge all localities to complete the annual task of pig production recovery, ensure the normal supply of pork market, promote the implementation of supporting policies such as breeding land, mortgage loan and environmental assessment commitment system pilot, strengthen technical guidance and services, strengthen the normalized prevention and control of African swine fever, try out the regional prevention and control of African swine fever and other major animal diseases, and guide large-scale breeding enterprises to drive the development The development of small and medium-sized farmers; monitoring production development trends, promoting the establishment of pig production capacity reserve system, taking breeding sow stock as the core control index, focusing on production and marketing provinces, breeding counties and large-scale breeding enterprises, improving control policies and measures, cooperating with relevant departments to carry out counter cyclical control, early research and judgment, early intervention and early response, so as to prevent the ups and downs of pig production.

“The current market consumption performance is low. In fact, it is not only the fresh pork market, but also the consumption of frozen pork and pork products. This is also due to the influence of off-season consumption after the Spring Festival, which usually lasts until about May of the next year. Before the Spring Festival, due to the southern production of bacon and the northern consumption demand of new year’s pig, the overall market purchasing strength is larger, which also overdraw the demand after the festival to a certain extent. ” Feng Yonghui, an analyst of souzhu.com, said in an interview that in the short term, it is expected that the overall price of pigs will remain weak and volatile, and there is little possibility of a sharp rise or fall.

Beijing Business News (reporter Tao Feng, Liu Hanlin)

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