The Chinese economist predicts that the economy will grow by about 8% in the first quarter



On March 24, China economist, a journal of the Institute of industrial economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, released the results of the “hot spot survey of Chinese economists” in the first quarter of 2021. The survey found that the economist predicted that the economic growth in the first quarter will continue to pick up, which is expected to reach a new high in recent years, the overall foreign trade situation will continue to improve, the inflation pressure still exists, and the employment situation may be improving. The economist predicted that the economic growth rate in the first quarter of 2021 will be about 8%, and that in the whole year will be about 6%.

On the whole, the results of the economist survey are quite good. The economic prosperity index reached 139, 59 points higher than that in the previous quarter. The economist predicted that economic growth will continue to pick up and is expected to reach a new high in recent years. 93.4% of the economists believe that the economic growth in the first quarter will rise year on year, while 55.9% of the economists believe that the economic growth in the first quarter will be higher than that in the fourth quarter of last year, and 27.6% of the economists believe that the economic growth in this quarter will be basically the same as that in the fourth quarter of last year.

In terms of foreign trade, 84.9% of the economists who participated in the survey believed that the export volume in the first quarter would rise year on year. In terms of employment situation, 73.7% of economists believe that the employment situation in the first quarter will be better than that in the same period of last year, and 11.2% believe that the employment situation will be basically the same as that in the same period of last year. The current China economist employment index was 114, up 73 points from the previous quarter. However, the economists predicted that the inflation pressure still existed. 67.1% of the economists believed that the price level in the first quarter would rise compared with the same period of last year, 14.5% believed that the price level would fall compared with the same period of last year, and 16.5% believed that the price level would be basically flat. The current price index of China’s economists was 143, up 16 points from the previous quarter.

On this basis, the economist forecasts that the economic growth rate in the first quarter of 2021 will be 8%, of which 9.5% of the economists judge that the growth rate is above 13%, and the western region has the highest forecast average. In terms of annual growth rate, the economist predicts that the annual economic growth rate in 2021 will be 6%.

It is worth mentioning that this hot research of Chinese economists focuses on the Yangtze River Delta integration demonstration zone. “In the current context of double cycle, regional economic development has become particularly important. Some recent studies have shown that although Shanghai has a large economy, the problems of high administrative barriers and the decline of its leading role in science and technology across the country are gradually emerging, which deviates slightly from the traditional view of openness and inclusiveness. Therefore, our research focuses on the Yangtze River Delta. ” Li Gang, director of the editorial department of China economist and researcher of the Institute of industry and economics, told Beijing business daily.

Most of the respondents know something about the Yangtze River Delta integration and are optimistic about the development prospect of the Yangtze River Delta integration demonstration zone. About 84.2% of the respondents think that the Yangtze River Delta integration demonstration zone is expected to be completed within 20 years. More than half of the respondents think that the development speed of the Yangtze River Delta integration demonstration zone is faster than expected, but the green growth mechanism needs to be strengthened. About 61.2% of the respondents thought that the implementation effect of the green growth mechanism in the Yangtze River Delta region was average, and only about 38.1% of the respondents thought that the effect was very good.

Respondents believe that the main obstacle to the integration of the Yangtze River Delta is that the local government is not in place, and the integration of the Yangtze River Delta has a general effect on breaking trade barriers. Nearly 30% of the respondents think that the main obstacle to the integration of the Yangtze River Delta is the poor effect of technology transfer.

More than half of the respondents think that Shanghai has the advantages of science and technology, location and economic foundation in the development of Yangtze River Delta integration, but about 61.2% of the respondents think that the “tangible and intangible” administrative barriers will restrict the development of Shanghai and restrict Shanghai from playing a leading role in the development of Yangtze River Delta integration.

In addition, Shanghai’s settlement policy will have a great impact on the integration of the Yangtze River Delta, breaking administrative barriers or Shanghai’s important measures to promote the integration of the Yangtze River Delta. About 61.2% of the interviewees thought that the policy of settling down in Shanghai had a great impact on increasing the flow of talents in the construction of Yangtze River Delta integration. About 61.8% of the interviewees suggested that Shanghai should break administrative barriers and promote the combination of industry, University and research in the process of participating in the integration of Yangtze River Delta.

Beijing Business News (reporter Tao Feng, Wang chenting)

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