On March 31, as of the closing, the stock price of Guizhou Maotai Liquor Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “Guizhou Maotai”) fell 2.29% daily, closing at 2009 yuan / share, with the lowest intraday price of 2000 yuan and a total market value of 2.52 trillion yuan.
It is worth noting that last night, Guizhou Maotai released its 2020 annual report, with total revenue and net profit of 94.915 billion yuan and 46.697 billion yuan respectively, up 11.1% and 13.33% year on year respectively. At the same time, Guizhou Maotai disclosed the super dividend plan in the report. It plans to distribute 192.93 yuan (tax included) of cash dividends for every 10 shares, with a total of 24.235 billion yuan of cash dividends, accounting for 51.9% of the net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company.
Beijing Business Daily reporter consulted Maotai about this, the other side said that stock floating is normal stock market behavior. Industry insiders said that today’s stock correction in Maotai is still related to overvaluation. Although there has been a sharp correction after the Spring Festival, the price earnings ratio of Guizhou Maotai is still as high as 50 times, so the correction will continue.
Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Kaiyuan fund company, said that Maotai’s stock price has risen a lot in the past few years and reflected the expectation of performance growth in advance. Therefore, the short-term decline of stock price is not necessarily related to performance. If the company disclosed the annual report, the performance growth has been reflected in advance, then there will be no obvious rise in the stock price.
Beijing Business Daily reporter learned that on December 31 last year, Guizhou Maotai announced the 2020 annual performance forecast, saying that the company’s total revenue and net profit increased by about 10% year-on-year. On the first trading day after the disclosure of the performance forecast, that is, the first trading day in 2021, the stock price of Guizhou Maotai hit 2000 yuan for the first time. Since then, the stock price has trotted all the way and rose again after a short correction, reaching 2601 yuan on the last trading day before the festival. However, after the Spring Festival, the stock price of Maotai began a sharp correction, once falling below 2000 yuan.
However, the fluctuation of Maotai stock price did not affect the enthusiasm of the institutions. After three consecutive days of rise and the disclosure of yesterday’s annual report, more than 10 securities institutions, such as Hua’an securities, Everbright Securities and Guosheng securities, issued research reports to maintain the “buy” or “recommend” level.
Anxin Securities pointed out in the research report today that Maotai flavor has changed from brand rise to category rise, further strengthening the long-term dominant position of the leader. In addition, the increase in unpacking sales actually started the second round of consumption popularization. If it lasts for a long time, the popularization and upgrading of Maotai will be unimaginable.
According to the research report released by Ping An Securities, Maotai liquor occupies an absolute leading position in China’s high-end liquor, with significant advantages in brand power and product power, high channel price difference moat, strong ability to transfer economic fluctuation risk and high performance certainty. Looking forward to the medium and long term, Guizhou Maotai is expected to further improve the ton price by increasing the proportion of direct sales and the price of non-standard products, and the price and volume growth prospects will be determined under the trend of consumption upgrading.
Yang Delong believes that in the long run, liquor leading stocks have brand value, relatively good performance growth ability and relatively high dividend rate. This kind of target is undoubtedly in line with value investment, and the funds represented by institutions should continue to allocate liquor leading stocks dominated by Maotai.
Beijing Business News (reporter Zhao Dan)
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