What are the obstacles to the recovery of global manufacturing industry

The global economic recovery bottomed out, and the overall growth rate of manufacturing industry accelerated. On April 6, according to the data released by the China Federation of logistics and purchasing, in March this year, the global manufacturing PMI was 57.8%, up 2.2 percentage points from last month, and remained above 50% for nine consecutive months. The overall growth rate of manufacturing industry in each continent continued to expand. The PMI of manufacturing industry in Europe and America increased significantly, while the indexes of Asia and Africa increased slightly. The industry believes that under the background of the continued strengthening of global economic recovery, we should still guard against the negative effects brought by the rebound of epidemic situation, global inflation and the blockage of Suez Canal.

“When it comes to the reasons for the accelerated growth of manufacturing industry, including the continuous promotion of vaccines in the world to boost market confidence; the continued expansionary fiscal policies and loose monetary policies of major developed economies have stimulated the growth of manufacturing demand, led to the increase of product prices in manufacturing industry, and provided power for enterprise production; the recovery of international trade, especially the increase of trade in goods, has increased Market liquidity improves the supply chain environment and promotes the positive interaction of the global economy. ” The relevant person in charge of the Ministry of science and technology information pointed out.

According to the data, the PMI of European manufacturing industry increased by 3.4 percentage points to 59.5%, reaching the highest level in recent two years. At the same time, the United States also aims to accelerate the recovery of the national economy through the new economic stimulus plan, while the strong expansion of production and order data of the manufacturing industry in Europe and the United States has also formed a strong support for the recovery of the manufacturing industry in Asia. In March, Asian manufacturing PMI rose 0.8 percentage point to 52.6% from the previous month, and stabilized at more than 51% for six consecutive months.

“At present, the number of vaccinations has increased and the number of confirmed cases has decreased, and the recovery process of the world’s major economies has been accelerated. With the re opening of the global economy, China’s import situation is also improving, which also reflects the strong domestic demand. ” Wang Jingwen, director of the macroeconomic research center of China Minsheng Bank Research Institute, said.

In March, the recovery momentum of China’s manufacturing economy was good, driving the recovery of Asian economy. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, both the supply and demand sides of the national manufacturing industry accelerated to pick up in March, with the PMI index of the manufacturing industry at 51.9%. The index of new export orders rebounded to its highest level this year, while the import index rose to its highest level in recent years.

However, the relevant person in charge of the Ministry of science, technology and information warned that there are still some uncertain factors in the current process of economic recovery. For example, the impact of the rebound of the epidemic on the global economy, the economic growth expectation and inflation level brought about by the massive rescue of the US market, and the inflation pressure transmitted to emerging market countries suddenly increased, while the global inflation pressure brought about by the monetary easing policy may have some negative effects on developing countries.

In addition, the short-term impact of Suez Canal blockage on global maritime logistics can not be underestimated. On March 23, local time, after the giant freighter “Changci” ran aground in the southern section of the Suez Canal, the latest news from Bloomberg on April 6 showed that the Suez Canal was “blocked” again. The aforementioned person in charge believes that the “blocking” incident may indirectly lead to the increase of Global trade costs, production interruption of some enterprises, price rise and other issues.

“The manufacturing industry is expected to continue to repair upward in the second quarter.” Li Mo, an analyst with the macro team of Caixin Research Institute, believes that with the controlled impact of the epidemic and the expansion of vaccination coverage, domestic demand will accelerate the shift to the consumer side in the second quarter, and overseas demand will also usher in a period of rapid repair, which will continue to form strong support for the repair of domestic manufacturing industry.

Beijing Business News (reporter Tao Feng, Liu Hanlin)

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