After the Qingming Festival holiday, there are rumors that the mortgage interest rate will be raised, which also leads to speculation that the mortgage interest rate in Beijing may change. On April 8, a reporter from Beijing business daily conducted an investigation into the outlets of many large state-owned banks and joint-stock banks in Beijing.
A number of bank loan center customer managers told Beijing Business Daily that they have not received the notice of raising the mortgage interest rate. At present, the mortgage interest rates in Beijing are implemented in accordance with the regulatory provisions. The interest rate of the first house is LPR (loan market quotation rate) + 55 basis points (5.2%), and the interest rate of the second house is LPR + 105 basis points (5.7%).
Generally speaking, for the new personal commercial housing loan, the lending bank will first determine the lower limit of the additional point stipulated by the regional differentiated credit policy, and then comprehensively consider the bank’s operation, the borrower’s risk status and credit conditions, and the specific additional point value of each loan will be determined by both sides through negotiation. Bank of China and Agricultural Bank of China’s personal loan departments told Beijing Business Daily that at present, the bank implements the standard of 5.2% interest rate for the first set of housing and 5.7% interest rate for the second set of housing, and has not received the notice of increase for the time being.
Relevant people of China Construction Bank said, “at present, the mortgage interest rate has not changed, it is still the same as before.”. Postal savings bank staff said that the mortgage interest rate is within the scope of policy permission, according to the market interest rate level and customer credit risk situation to implement differential pricing, there is no notice to increase.
In addition to state-owned banks, joint-stock banks are also like this. Beijing business daily learned from the managers of several joint-stock banks that the relevant people of Beijing Branch of China Guangfa bank introduced that the interest rate of the first set of housing is 5.2% and that of the second set of housing is 5.7%, and there is no change in the near future.
“The interest rates of housing loans of banks in Beijing are all the same. According to the unified pricing, we haven’t heard the news of an increase recently.” Zheshang Bank personal loan manager said.
The housing loan interest rate in Beijing market has been relatively stable. In this regard, Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of E-House Research Institute, said that the keynote of the current loan policy is clear, that is, “one is stable, one is tight, and one is loose.”. For a reasonable demand for house purchase, we tend to adhere to a stable orientation, that is, the interest rate will not change. For hot spots and some banks with insufficient credit, it is possible to tighten up slightly. For loose areas, it is related to local policy reform. For example, some areas with long social security payment time and no record of house purchase and loan may be further relaxed in the future. For the Beijing market, the tightening probability is not big. In fact, the real estate market in Beijing has been relatively stable in the past two years, and the issuance of loans has been relatively stable. Tightening at this time is of little significance.
Although the housing loan interest rate in Beijing did not rise, the reporter of Beijing business daily noticed in the investigation that some banks have tightened the loan amount, mainly in joint-stock banks.
A business person from the personal loan department of a joint-stock bank disclosed to the Beijing Business Daily that “now the amount of loans in the national loan market will be tightened to a certain extent, and the amount of loans in the bank tends to be tightened, but no formal notice has been received yet.”.
Another joint-stock bank has no loan quota. The bank’s customer manager disclosed to the reporter that “now the control is relatively strict, and there is no quota at the beginning of this year. The bank will adjust it according to the regulatory requirements. When to release the quota has not been notified, we have to wait for the bank to set it.”.
In sharp contrast, the amount of loans granted by large state-owned banks is sufficient. Many account managers of individual loan departments of large state-owned banks said frankly to Beijing Business Daily: “we have not heard of the tightening of the amount of loans, the customer materials are complete, and the lending cycle is about 3 weeks to 1 month, and the lending cycle time of the first suite and the second suite is almost the same.”
In this regard, Tao Jin, deputy director of the macroeconomic research center of Suning Institute of finance, pointed out in an interview with Beijing Business Daily that the reason why the amount of joint-stock banks and large state-owned banks is different should not be the capital side problem, that is, under the condition of abundant liquidity, joint-stock banks will not be subject to liquidity restrictions, more likely because some joint-stock banks have compliance pressure on housing loan concentration power.
Yan Yuejin also believes that the loan difference and loan amount between banks are related to the implementation of policies such as housing loan concentration, so there will be different kinds of loan performance. It also shows that the new regulation of housing loan concentration management is being actively implemented. Similar overproof natural need compression, of course, not overnight, after all, there are two years of buffer period. But if the number of subsequent applicants for loans increases, it is possible that interest rates will rise.
On December 31 last year, the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CIRC) issued the notice on the establishment of a management system for real estate loan concentration of banking financial institutions, in which it is clear that the upper limit of the proportion of real estate loans and individual housing loans of the first tier of large Chinese funded banks is 40% and 32.5% respectively, and that of the second tier of medium-sized Chinese funded banks is 27.5% and 20% respectively. According to the banks that have published the data of the 2020 annual report, the proportion of personal housing loans of five banks, including China Construction Bank, postal savings bank, industrial bank, China Merchants Bank and China CITIC Bank, exceeds the standard.
As for the solution to the excessive proportion of individual housing loans, LV Jiajin, vice president of China Construction Bank, said at the performance conference that the proportion of real estate related loans in various loans will be reduced in an orderly manner. The new regulations have little impact on the growth of loan scale, and the excessive part will be digested year by year. Zhu Tao, the chief investment officer of China Merchants real estate, said that he would speed up the adjustment of the asset allocation structure of the banks involved in risks.
How will the new rules affect the future changes of mortgage interest rates? Tao Jin pointed out that the regulatory requirements for the concentration of real estate loans are more to control the increment of real estate loans, and pay attention to the structural adjustment of the scale of different types of inter-bank real estate loans in the stock part, so as to make different concentration of real estate loans match banks with different risk tolerance. In the short run, the supply of individual housing, at least in the stock, may not be affected as much as expected. However, under the pressure of compliance, tightening the new housing loan line may be the general trend, and the decrease of credit supply may lead to the increase of real housing loan interest rate, which may not necessarily be the adjustment of 5-year loan base rate (LPR), but may be the increase of LPR plus points, or the decrease of early-stage plus points.
Beijing Business Daily reporter Meng fanxia song Yitong
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