“A thrill” in China

This time, it’s China’s turn for the “killed” white horse stocks. On April 13, the share price of China Tourism Group Zhongmian Co., Ltd. dived to the limit in the afternoon, and then it was listed on the hot search list of Internet social platform. As a result, Zhongmian, once regarded by investors as a “sweet cake” and invested nearly 4 billion yuan in tax-free projects in Sanya last month, has also come to the forefront of public opinion.


Collapse and limit

The trading market showed that China CMAC opened 0.87% lower on April 13. After the opening, the company’s share price remained volatile and closed at noon, up 1.32%. However, after the afternoon opening, China’s Zhongmian was hit by a large amount of funds, and its share price quickly closed to the limit.

As of the close of the day, the share price of CMAC was 265.85 yuan / share, down 10%, with a total market value of 519.1 billion yuan, down 57.6 billion yuan compared with the closing market value of 576.7 billion yuan on the previous trading day.

There are many speculations about the reasons for the limit drop, but there are many different opinions. Generally speaking, there are two possibilities for the “bad effect”: one is the severe crackdown on duty-free purchasing by the regulatory authorities; the other is that the stock price of China National Tax Exemption Corporation is unreasonably high, and the fund is safe to escape.

On April 12, Zhang Jiwen, deputy director of the General Administration of customs, said that the General Administration of Customs had guided Haikou customs to carry out 11 rounds of special operations to crack down on duty-free “package purchase” smuggling in Hainan outlying islands in the past two years, killing 66 smuggling gangs with a total case value of about 200 million yuan. Since July 2020, more than 8000 individuals who have participated in the illegal act of duty-free “package purchase” in Hainan Islands have been restricted from enjoying the duty-free shopping policy in Hainan Islands for three years.

In addition, most of the investors in the market think that China’s CMV has a big rise in the early stage and its valuation is falsely high. According to Wang Chikun, an independent economist, since the second half of 2020, the concept of tax exemption has been hot in the market. Many tax-free stocks, such as China tax exemption, have risen a lot in the early stage, and this drop is also a normal correction.

It is undeniable that with the gradual improvement of the epidemic prevention and control situation and the accelerated recovery of domestic tourism, there are a large number of “fans” in the tax-free market of outlying islands, and many tax-free concept stocks have really caught a wave of heat. Among them, the rise of China’s immunity is fierce. According to statistics, from April last year to January this year, the share price of China’s CMAC has risen as high as 333.04%, which is praised as “white horse stock” by netizens.

However, after the Spring Festival, the stock price is lukewarm. Before the daily limit, the stock price has dropped by more than 20% since the Spring Festival. With the daily limit on the 13th, the stock price has dropped by 31%.

In response to the company’s stock price limit drop, CMAC also made a response on the interactive platform, saying that the company carried out information disclosure work in strict accordance with the information disclosure requirements of listed companies, there was no information that should be disclosed but not disclosed, the company’s fundamentals were good, and its operation was normal.

Institutional sale

It is worth noting that behind the price limit of CMAC in China is the collective failure of institutions. In the evening of April 13, the after hours trading information disclosed by the Shanghai Stock Exchange showed that the top five seats sold by China free on that day sold a total of 1.4 billion yuan, accounting for 21.49% of the total turnover of the day. These five seats include three institutions, Shanghai Stock connect and Hangzhou Jincheng Road Business Department of Soochow securities. Among them, three institutions sold 839 million yuan in total.

If calculated according to the price limit of 265.85 yuan per share, the three fleeing institutions will sell at least 1.71 million shares, 860000 shares and 600000 shares respectively on the same day. According to the company’s annual report, as of the end of 2020, there are 26 funds holding more than 1.71 million shares of CMAC, and the leading selling institution may be among them.

In addition, we also see institutions in the top five buying seats in China, which is the third largest buying seat with a purchase amount of 95.5721 million yuan. On the whole, compared with the strength of selling, the strength of buying is weak.

A fund industry official said that the recent frequent stock price falls of some institutions’ heavy positions may be related to the fund’s position adjustment and stock exchange. “Many large cap stocks have risen a lot since last year. When the market is in a weak state, we can’t rule out that some funds will choose to change positions and stocks in a radical way.” That’s what the person said.

Turn loss into profit

On the evening of April 13, China’s Zhongmian disclosed its performance express for the first quarter of 2021.

According to the announcement, during the reporting period, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 18.134 billion yuan, an increase of 127.48% over the same period of last year, and realized a net profit of 2.849 billion yuan attributable to shareholders of listed companies, an increase of 2.871 billion yuan over the same period of last year. Among them, the latter also increased by 543 million yuan from 2.306 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2019.

For China’s novel coronavirus pneumonia, Islands’s tax exempt business increased substantially in the past year, and was affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, which was affected by the low base period in the same period last year, according to the China’s central government’s exemption from the implementation of the new tax free tax in Islands, Hainan.

In addition, the company’s performance in 2020 has also been disclosed. According to the company’s performance express, the net profit attributable in 2020 is about 6.117 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.07%, and the net profit attributable after non deduction is about 5.938 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55.05%.

In the view of the industry, although many performance indicators of CMAC doubled in the first three months, even exceeding the data of the same period before the epidemic, recently many enterprises that have obtained tax-free admission licenses for outlying islands are actively planning Hainan’s market, expanding the types of goods sources and brands. It can be seen that CMAC will face more challenges if it wants to maintain its market share and maintain rapid recovery in the next step.

According to Zhou Mingqi, the founder of Jingjian think tank, with the successive implementation of the “big gift package” of the tax-free policy for outlying islands, more and more enterprises begin to squeeze into the Hainan market to “share the cake”, and the “absolute advantage” of China’s tax exemption seems to have weakened.

According to the data, since the implementation of the new tax-free policy in Hainan last year to April 6 this year, the amount of duty-free shopping in Hainan’s outlying islands reached 34.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 244%; 4.96 million shopping passengers, a year-on-year increase of 101%.

In addition to the new duty-free shops, Hainan has recently launched “mail delivery” and other businesses. At present, duty-free enterprises in Hainan Islands have delivered 400 million yuan, 530000 items and 100000 person times of duty-free goods by mail from February 3 to April 6.

At the same time, at present, the number of duty-free shops in Hainan Island has increased to 10, which has changed the previous market pattern of “China duty free Department” exclusively operating duty-free shops in Hainan Island. Haikong, Shenzhen duty-free, China Service duty-free and hailv have become new competitors of China duty-free.

“This time, the” sudden change “in the share price of CMAC still needs to be treated with caution.” Zhou Mingqi said frankly that on the whole, in a short period of time, the size of other enterprises can not be compared with that of China. China free has obvious advantages in terms of customer volume and bargaining power with big brands. In addition, it is still uncertain when outbound tourism will recover. Consumers with regular outbound shopping habits will still return to China, and there is still room for domestic duty-free shopping plates to continue to expand.

However, Zhou Mingqi further pointed out that if China’s tax-free goods supply and price of outlying islands can not continue to maintain a significant leading position, it is likely to speed up the distribution of traffic and share by the “younger generation” in the future.

In response to relevant issues, Beijing Business Daily reporter repeatedly called the office of the Secretary of the board of directors of China National immunity Administration for an interview, but the other party’s phone call showed that it was “on the phone”.

Beijing Business Daily reporter Jiang Mengwei Yang Huima exchange

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